{"id":956,"date":"2020-06-24T11:48:13","date_gmt":"2020-06-24T08:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/?p=956"},"modified":"2020-06-24T11:49:23","modified_gmt":"2020-06-24T08:49:23","slug":"cresterea-numarului-de-cazuri-covid-19-o-evolutie-explicabila-si-asteptata-dupa-relaxare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/2020\/06\/24\/cresterea-numarului-de-cazuri-covid-19-o-evolutie-explicabila-si-asteptata-dupa-relaxare\/","title":{"rendered":"Cre\u0219terea num\u0103rului de cazuri COVID-19: o evolu\u021bie explicabil\u0103 \u0219i a\u0219teptat\u0103 dup\u0103 relaxare"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Cre\u0219terea num\u0103rului de infec\u021bii cu coronavirus din ultimele zile reprezint\u0103 <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-very-dark-gray-color\">&#8222;o evolu\u021bie explicabil\u0103 \u0219i a\u0219teptat\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 am avut dou\u0103 etape de relaxare. Pentru faptul c\u0103 aceste etape s-au luat gradual, era normal, \u0219i acesta este un fenomen care nu este \u00eenregistrat numai \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, ci peste tot &#8211; \u0219i \u00een Belgia, \u0219i \u00een Fran\u021ba\u201d<\/span><\/strong>, afirm\u0103 medicul <strong>Doina Azoic\u0103i<\/strong>, pre\u0219edintele Societ\u0103\u021bii Rom\u00e2ne de Epidemiologie. Cu toate aceste cre\u0219teri, medicul d\u0103 un semnal de calm: fenomenele biologice legate de virus sunt \u00een descre\u0219tere \u0219i se a\u0219teapt\u0103 la o sc\u0103dere \u00een lunile de var\u0103. <strong>\u201eSuntem la un moment \u00een care presupunem, nu este o certitudine, dar <span class=\"has-inline-color has-very-dark-gray-color\">presupunem c\u0103 \u0219i condi\u021biile climatice ne ajut\u0103, cu toate c\u0103 nu s-a certificat faptul c\u0103 radia\u021biile ultraviolete \u0219i c\u0103ldura \u00eempiedic\u0103 transmiterea virusului. Dar totu\u0219i, este un virus respirator. \u00cen timpul verii avem circula\u021bie de virus gripal, dar nu avem cazuri care s\u0103 fie \u00eengrijor\u0103toare.&#8221;<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Doina-Azoic\u0103i.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-957\" width=\"219\" height=\"220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Doina-Azoic\u0103i.jpg 638w, https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Doina-Azoic\u0103i-297x300.jpg 297w, https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Doina-Azoic\u0103i-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Doina-Azoic\u0103i-300x300.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 219px) 100vw, 219px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e2t prive\u0219te responsabilitatea popula\u021biei, aceasta trebuie <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-very-dark-gray-color\">\u201es\u0103 \u021bin\u0103 cont de aceast\u0103 evolu\u021bie, lu\u00e2ndu-\u0219i toate precau\u021biile prin continuarea purt\u0103rii m\u0103\u0219tii, respectarea distan\u021b\u0103rii fizice \u0219i aplicarea m\u0103surilor de igien\u0103. Nu m\u0103surile de relaxare duc la cre\u0219terea num\u0103rului de cazuri, ci aplicarea lor elud\u00e2nd regulile care sunt absolut valabile. Nu putem s\u0103 renun\u021b\u0103m la aceste reguli&#8221;<\/span>, <\/strong>sus\u021bine pre\u0219edintele Societ\u0103\u021bii Rom\u00e2ne de Epidemiologie \u0219i profesor \u00een cadrul Universit\u0103\u021bii de Medicin\u0103 \u0219i Farmacie din Ia\u0219i. Valul a\u0219teptat la toamn\u0103 ar putea fi mai slab dec\u00e2t cel din prim\u0103var\u0103, deoarece o parte din popula\u021bie va fi deja imunizat\u0103 \u00een mod natural la acel moment &#8211; a trecut deja prin boal\u0103. \u00a0Medicul epidemiolog r\u0103m\u00e2ne optimist \u0219i spune c\u0103 tabloul pe care \u00eel prevede pentru perioada urm\u0103toare este o sc\u0103dere a num\u0103rului de cazuri: <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-very-dark-gray-color\">\u201eAceast\u0103 opinie a mea, c\u0103 num\u0103rul de cazuri va sc\u0103dea, se bazeaz\u0103 \u0219i pe o estimare de timp probabilistic matematic. Rata de reproducere scade, pentru c\u0103 suntem mult sub valoarea lui 1, iar aceasta este ra\u021biunea pentru care eu cred \u00een sc\u0103derea num\u0103rului de cazuri. Ce ne \u00eengrijoreaz\u0103 totu\u0219i este c\u0103 \u00eentr-o zi este mai mult, \u00eentr-o zi este mai pu\u021bin. Acest lucru este previzibil, pentru c\u0103 nu toat\u0103 lumea respect\u0103 m\u0103surile de prevenire. Comportamentul popula\u021biei nu este stabil &#8211; stabil ar \u00eensemna c\u0103 to\u021bi fac ce li s-a spus. \u00cen acest moment unii poart\u0103 masc\u0103, unii nu poart\u0103 masc\u0103, unii sunt disciplina\u021bi, al\u021bii nu. Ce este foarte important &#8211; s\u0103 \u00eencerc\u0103m, pe c\u00e2t posibil, \u00a0&#8211; s\u0103 limit\u0103m, c\u0103 nu putem jugula, aceast\u0103 transmitere. Or, aceast\u0103 transmitere nu se poate limita dec\u00e2t dac\u0103 respect\u0103m cu foarte mult\u0103 stricte\u021be, ca \u00een regim de r\u0103zboi, acele recomand\u0103ri. \u00cen r\u0103zboi nu se comenteaz\u0103! Facem apel la aceast\u0103 cumin\u021benie a oamenilor, pentru c\u0103, altfel, avem modelul Italiei, Fran\u021bei, Germaniei\u201d,<\/span> <\/strong>a mai subliniat pre\u0219edintele Societ\u0103\u021bii Rom\u00e2ne de Epidemiologie.<\/p><div id=\"dspvn-740267752\" class=\"dspvn-continut dspvn-entity-placement\" style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiipregatit.ro\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"www.fiipregatit.ro\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fiipreg.jpg\" alt=\"www.fiipregatit.ro\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fiipreg.jpg 946w, https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fiipreg-300x25.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fiipreg-150x12.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fiipreg-768x63.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fiipreg-600x49.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 946px) 100vw, 946px\" class=\"no-lazyload\" width=\"800\" height=\"78\"  style=\"display: inline-block;\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cre\u0219terea num\u0103rului de infec\u021bii cu coronavirus din ultimele zile reprezint\u0103 &#8222;o evolu\u021bie explicabil\u0103 \u0219i a\u0219teptat\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 am avut dou\u0103 etape de relaxare. Pentru faptul c\u0103 aceste etape s-au luat gradual, era normal, \u0219i acesta este un fenomen care nu este \u00eenregistrat numai \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, ci peste tot &#8211; \u0219i \u00een Belgia, \u0219i [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_regular_price":[],"currency_symbol":[],"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"post_slider_layout_featured_media_urls":{"thumbnail":"","post_slider_layout_landscape_large":"","post_slider_layout_portrait_large":"","post_slider_layout_square_large":"","post_slider_layout_landscape":"","post_slider_layout_portrait":"","post_slider_layout_square":"","full":""},"modified_by":"Stanciu Silviu","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=956"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/956\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":959,"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/956\/revisions\/959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dspvn.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}